Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is currently the only state in the country that reports over 10,000 COVID-19 cases daily. Even though the second wave of the pandemic has waned, over 5 lakh people in India tested positive for the disease-causing coronavirus in June alone.
Kerala reported 15,600 new COVID-19 cases and 11,629 recoveries on Wednesday. The Test Positivity Rate (TPR) in the state stands at 10.36%. With 148 COVID-19 deaths too confirmed on Wednesday, the death toll in the state so far rose to 14,108.
As per the latest national figures only 45,892 new COVID-19 cases and 817 deaths were reported in the past 24 hours. This Kerala accounts for nearly one-third of the total fresh cases. Significantly, on July 6, India recorded 553 deaths – lowest since April 6. On May 23, India saw record fatalities with 4,454 deaths in 24 hours at the peak of the second wave.
A comparison of daily fatality count shows Kerala is now contributing over 18% of the national toll – 148 out of the 817 deaths in the last 24 hours.
Currently, the disease transmission rate is also slightly increasing in Kerala. If this situation continues, the total number of infections could touch 50 lakh by October in Kerala. Going by the sero survey figures, the actual number of infections could come up to 1.75 crore by then. This means nearly half of the 3.58 crore population in Kerala would have contracted the disease by then.
Vaccination coverage
Currently, 33 per cent of the population in Kerala has been given the first dose of the vaccine against COVID-19. To counter the likely third wave of the pandemic, an average of 70 per cent should be vaccinated, according to healthcare experts. Accordingly, about 2.1 crore people should get one dose of vaccine. That is one crore more need to be vaccinated.
Currently, an average of 1.5 lakh dose vaccine is administered daily. Even if it is estimated that the first dose is given to 75,000 people, it would take over four months to meet the target.
As per the disaster management authority's projection report, the third wave is likely to start in September. The report also states that the impact of the third wave would reduce if 40 per cent gain immunity through vaccination or by contracting the infection.
