Analysis | Nilambur gives Congress fuel for 2026 race

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No room for doubt. The Congress-led UDF has scored a political victory in Nilambur bypoll. Aryadan Shoukath’s victory by over 11,000 votes in the high-stake battle is unlike the three previous bypoll wins during the current Assembly term. While the Opposition front retained its sitting seats Thrikkakara, Puthuppally and Palakkad with improved margins in the previous bypolls, it has now wrested Nilambur from the LDF authoritatively.
The bypoll was necessitated following the resignation of LDF-backed Independent P V Anvar, who won the past two elections from Nilambur. Shoukath’s win, defeating LDF’s M Swaraj as well as Anvar, who contested as an Independent after failing to get a UDF berth, comes as a high dose booster shot for Congress and its allies as Kerala gears up for local body and assembly elections in the coming months. The confidence this show has injected into the UDF was all that it has been waiting for in the past four years after being out of power for two consecutive terms.
Brave step
UDF went into the Nilambur bypoll putting up a brave face, taking a bold step by putting Anvar in his place. While the result shows a clear anti-incumbency wave, it is clear that the victory margin would have been much higher had Anvar been accommodated in the UDF camp. However, what makes the UDF show more impressive is the fact that it chose to tread the difficult path by fighting two rivals and emerged with a thumping win. For those who have been seeing Anvar’s antics, it’s an easy guess that he would have claimed the credit for the win if he was with the UDF. Even if he didn’t do that, an impression would have easily been created. It would have only been damaging for the UDF.
Satheesan cements his position
The decision to keep Anvar, who was never willing to accept the UDF candidate, at bay helped the Congress big time as it triggered the party pride among the supporters like never before in recent past. Anvar, through repeated public comments, revealed that he was too demanding. Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan’s adamant stand that Anvar should be accommodated only if he endorses the UDF candidate was widely accepted among the party supporters and the result has in effect vindicated his stand. Sources close to Satheesan said the victory margin they had expected was around 10,000. “Had the margin gone below 5,000, there would have been a call for his blood from his detractors in the party,” a young leader close to Satheesan admitted.
Satheesan, in his post-result press briefing, has termed the result a victory of Team UDF.
Road to 2026?
Nilambur bypoll was repeatedly referred to by Congress leaders as the semifinal before the Assembly polls due next year. The emphatic win, they point out, is a clear signal of the strong anti-incumbency wave that should trouble the LDF in 2026. While Ramesh Chennithala has called for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s resignation on moral grounds, veteran Congress leader A K Antony said: “For the people of Kerala, a change in government has already happened in their mind. Pinarayi remaining as CM is only a matter of technicality.”
The UDF’s desperation to win, that too with the best margin possible, was evident in the election works in Nilambur. They knew a loss or even a tiny victory would drain whatever remaining energy in their camp at the face of the upcoming elections. The UDF leaders, including MPs and MLAs, not only camped in the hilly constituency but also engaged in an aggressive door-to-door campaign this time. The IUML, despite all of its past differences with Shoukath and his father Aryadan Muhammed, deployed its entire cadre machinery to ensure a UDF win. In the end, the UDF managed to keep its vote base intact in the constituency with a track record of treachery, going by past elections.
New leadership
For the recently appointed KPCC president Sunny Joseph and his team, the Nilambur bypoll came as a public exam right at the beginning of their academic year. They had little time to prepare, but they rose up to the occasion by projecting a united front. The coordinated works among the youngsters in the leadership and an aggressive social media campaign added much to the setting of the narrative.
In short, Nilambur has given UDF the fuel for survival.