Scorching heat over Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea complicates monsoon forecast in Kerala

_{Palakkad: Kerala is set to enjoy a typical southwest monsoon this year as per the initial estimates of the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD). Northern Kerala may expect a stormy monsoon this time unlike last year when it rained heavily in southern Kerala.}

_{Heatwave points to early arrival}

_{The weather analysts and various private agencies foresee the chances of an early monsoon, starting from this month, as a result of the continuance of strong heat waves across the country. Conditions such as strong heat waves and the existence of high temperatures along the Bay of Bengal coast may lead to such a situation.}

_{Unusual 2021}

_{June to September is the regular southwest monsoon period. It is main rainy season for the Indian subcontinent.
In 2021 Kerala witnessed heavy rains earlier than the usual phase but only to relapse subsequently and rebound later. This was totally in variance with the typical monsoon pattern the people of Kerala are familiar with for ages.}

_{Though it was predicted that it would be usual rain with less intensity last time, isolated cases of extraordinary high-intensity rain were reported at different places. It caused many deaths and large-scale destruction. At many places, light cloudbursts and cyclones were reported.}

_{However, the overall shortfall in the monsoon rain was compensated last time by the northeast monsoon (Thulavarsham) which literally went berserk.}

_{The reluctance of the monsoon to retreat coupled with the occurrence of cyclones and the formation of low-pressure areas created extraordinary weather situations last year.}

_{Both the southwest monsoon and Thulavarsham even had simultaneous spells, creating an unusual situation. Various weather agencies found it difficult to come up with an explanation on such a development.}

_{According to reports, the volume of rain received last time was the highest in the last 120 years.}

_{Increased heating over Bay of Bengal}

_{During the last many years, another worrisome fact has been that the areas above the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have no cooling effect.}

_{Earlier, the temperature along the Bay of Bengal was 29-degrees Celsius. But now it is 31-degrees Celsius. The current heatwave in the country has contributed to such a scenario.}

_{With the increase in temperature, a large-scale transfer of vapour from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea is taking place. The cyclones occurring in the Kerala region of the Arabian Sea may give an extra impetus to such a movement of vapour.}

_{The IMD's warning is that the formation of the low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal is going to intensify in the coming days. If this comes true, the sea is going to draw large quantities of vapour.}

_{When the dark clouds pass through Kerala, there might be a chance for heavy rain.}

_{High chances of strong winds}

_{It is not clear whether the monsoon will arrive when the low-pressure formation dies down or whether the rainy season will come late because of the low-pressure formation? Anyway, it is expected that the low-pressure formation is going to produce strong monsoon winds.}

_{Though many weather experts say that the conditions are slowly becoming favourable for the onset of the monsoon, the IMD is of the view that any hints on the arrival of monsoon will be available only by the middle of this month.}

_{A repeat of last year?}

_{Like previous years, there could be a possibility of a lull period after the initial spell. It is to be noted that even now, there are area-wise cyclones, which were earlier unheard of.}

_{The monsoon season manifests in Myanmar followed by its spell in Andaman and Sri Lanka. Then, it comes to Kerala.}

_{According to weather analyst Dr MK Sathish Kumar, the summer winds, which came all the way from Europe and swept across the regions continuously for two years, led to the draining out of vapour from the atmosphere in a large-scale.
Moreover, very extreme heat zones have come up in Rajasthan, leading to the rise in the level of temperature in the Bay of Bengal.}

_{Now, the speculations by the experts are mainly on how long rain will continue even if it starts its spell at the end of May.
During the last two years, there was a drastic reduction in atmospheric pollution due to the COVID-19 restrictions. But now the situation is slowly coming back to square one. It is not clear whether the monsoon this year would end up with the same pattern of that of the previous years.}

_{With the Bay of Bengal becoming an epicentre of cyclones, anything can occur. The chances of heavy rain cannot be ruled out if there is an occurrence of low-pressure formation over the Arabia Sea just like the one which was felt over the Bay of Bengal.}