Developed countries are projected to collectively emit around 3.7 giga tonnes extra carbon dioxide in 2030, against the reduction goals expressed in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the 2016 Paris Agreement, according to a new issue brief released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
This represents a 38 per cent emission overshoot, with the United States, European Union, and Russia responsible for 83 per cent of this.
The study highlights that only two developed countries — namely Norway and Belarus — are on track to achieve their reduction commitments by 2030.
The mitigation efforts of developed countries impact the carbon budget available to developing nations, which need sufficient carbon space to address their economic and social development challenges and ensure a just transition.
Further, currently, developed countries’ NDCs for 2030 collectively represent a 36 per cent reduction in emissions from their 2019 levels. This is less than the global average of 43 per cent that is required to keep the 1.5°C target alive.
What are NDCs?
• The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on December 12, 2015. It entered into force on November 4, 2016.
• Its overarching goal is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• To keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C, emissions need to be reduced by 45 per cent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
• The Paris Agreement has established a process by which countries increase their efforts to reduce emissions and increase resilience over time in an effort to achieve the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement. They embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
• NDC means national plans and pledges made by a country to meet the goal of maintaining global temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while aiming for 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
• They were agreed to by countries during the Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) in Paris in 2015.
• Each Party needs to prepare, communicate and maintain successive NDCs that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.
• Every five years countries are expected to review and enhance their NDCs and submit more ambitious actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• The plans define how to reach the targets, and elaborate systems to monitor and verify progress so it stays on track.
• The best NDCs aim high and reach far. Grounded in sound analysis and data, they help countries begin a transformative shift to development that is greener and more sustainable.
• Some countries now make links between NDCs and national development plans, including those to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
• Together, these climate actions determine whether the world achieves the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
