Chelakkara: Nearly one month of pitched campaigning for the November 13 byelection culminated in Kalashakottu -- the carnival of song, dance, political camaraderie, and one-upmanship -- in Chelakkara at 6 pm on Monday. 

Supporters cutting across party affiliations, age and gender said they had never seen such an intense election campaign in Chelakkara, an Assembly constituency reserved for Dalit candidates. "AKG Bhavan, Indira Bhavan and Mararji Bhavan -- all are in Chelakkara today," said Babu Thilakkad, a retired government employee pursuing an LLB degree. 

All three major candidates -- LDF's Pradeep UR, UDF's Ramya Haridas, and NDA's K Balakrishnan  -- were at Chelakkara town for the Kalashakottu. PV Anvar's candidate Sudheer NK celebrated the Kalashakottu on Sunday "to avoid inconveniencing the people".

LDF's Pradeep was flanked by Revenue Minister K Rajan of the CPI, five-time Chelakkara MLA K Radhakrishnan, and former ministers AC Moideen and VS Sunil Kumar. The mood was upbeat. "We are winning this election on our own with a bigger margin," said All India Democratic Women's Association (AIDWA) leader Shiny Shaji of Chelakkara. Her friends Sunitha and Prasanna said the government's development work and Pradeep's son-of-soil image will help them trump all the contenders. 

When asked about the "Anvar factor," a staunch supporter dismissed it with a snide remark: "What is a promise of a hundred houses compared to our government’s track record of building five lakh houses!" She was taking a dig at Anvar's pledge to build 1,000 houses for the homeless in Chelakkara.

The UDF descended on Chelakkara in full strength, with Ramya Haridas and Palakkad candidate Rahul Mamkootathil taking centre stage, even dancing atop the bonnet of the campaign jeep. 

They were backed by Congress state president K Sudhakaran, MPs V K Sreekandan, Kodikunnil Suresh, and Jebi Mather. 

MLA Chandy Oommen and Rajya Sabha member Jebi Mather also joined the crowd, shaking a leg. "We should be winning big. I don't remember the last time when the Congress worked so hard in Chelakkara," said Sukumaran T. "Our only worry is Anvar. We don't know how his candidate will fare," said Babu Thilakkad. In the last Lok Sabha election, Ramya Haridas reduced the margin between the LDF and the UDF in Chelakkara assembly segment to 5,173 votes.

Congress started with a sedentary campaign in Chelakkara. But after the Palakkad byelection was postponed to November 20 on November 5, the UDF reworked its campaign strategy for Chelakkara, said Sukumaran. "It paid off. Our campaign peaked at the right time," he said.

Mohanlal's 'Baletta Baletta' song from the movie Balettan set the tempo in the BJP's camp at Chelakkara bus stand. Its candidate Balakrishnan is flanked by party state president K Surendran and district president K K Aneesh in the campaign jeep. Party supporters said Balakrishnan, a panchayat vice-president, will better T N Sarasu's performance. Sarasu increased BJP's vote share by 20% in the Chelakkara Assembly segment in the Lok Sabha election for Alathur in April 2024. "This time, even Anvar is with us," Narayanan K Nair, a retired Railway employee, said with a wink. He returned to his hometown of Chelakkara seven years ago. "All these years we were losing. But this time, it's different. I have seen such an energetic campaign for the first time," he said.

K Balakrishnan is a grassroots candidate and that is the BJP's strength, said Sajitha Baburajan, a grassroots leader. "I was in charge of the campaign in five booths. The plight of the people and the houses in the (Dalit and Adivasi) colonies are pathetic," she said. "And this is one of the biggest reserved constituencies. Radhakrishnan was the minister, and Pradeep was an MLA, but what did they do?"

The plot thickens
LDF leaders speak of their candidate Pradeep with a cautious “even if”—expressing confidence he will prevail due to his goodwill among locals, even if anti-incumbency sentiments are strong. This subtle admission hints at the growing discontent with the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government. Meanwhile, Anvar's candidate has introduced a twist to Chelakkara's political landscape. Initially dismissed by LDF leaders as a non-threat, Sudheer has worked intensively with DMK in LDF-dominated panchayats. Their housing pledge resonated with the homeless, drawing applicants from all nine panchayats.

UDF supporters see a real chance to dislodge the CPM from its Chelakkara perch, where it has sat pretty for 28 years. "We have a faint doubt of our victory only because the candidate is Ramya. Otherwise, the sentiments are against the government," Sunny, a civil engineer in Elanadu, said.

The IUML has also thrown its full weight behind Chelakkara, where Muslims make up 40% of the population, though most traditionally back the LDF. Anvar, too, is targeting the same Left Muslims. 

The BJP is hopeful of sailing past the post in this muddled Chelakkara. Yet Chelakkara is awash with too many 'ifs' for any front to take victory for granted.