It's anti-incumbency, Onmanorama survey said it first, Nilambur voters endorsed it

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CPM may not be willing to accept it, but anti-incumbency was a key factor in LDF candidate M Swaraj's downfall in the Nilambur bypoll. Two rounds of the Onmanorama survey revealed a strong anti-incumbency sentiment in the constituency.
The final results proved the survey findings. Swaraj's poll share was the lowest by a party candidate in Nilambur. In the 19 rounds of counting, he gained lead only in 3. If LDF gained good lead in four panchayats in 2021, Swaraj managed a fragile lead only in Karulai in 2025. One-third of the total majority of the UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath came from Nilambur municipality where CPM had high hopes. Swaraj was blown away in home turves;Pothukallu, Amarambalam and Nilambur.
Swaraj wasn't able to capitalise on Shoukath's jumpy start in the first rounds of counting simply because CPM's votes eroded in local bodies. In the first round of the survey, seventy per cent of those who chose the LDF government's performance as the most decisive factor in the byelection said the performance was poor.
Man-animal conflict was the major issue that influenced the voters. Thirty-five per cent of those surveyed said recurring wildlife terror will be on top of their minds when they cast their votes on June 19. As Onmanorama reported, these were worrying signs for Swaraj as nearly 50 per cent (47.5%) of those surveyed blamed the inaction of the LDF government for the persistent wildlife attacks in the area.
Sixty per cent of those surveyed in the first round said the Pinarayi government had not ushered in any major development like its leaders claim. When the final results came, Swaraj faced the wrath of people just as the survey results indicated. CPM's ploy to divert attention from ground-level issues to other topics like Welfare party's support for the Congress flopped.
Onmanorama reached out to the same respondents on June 17, when the campaign ended, to find out if the high-decibel campaign left any impact on voters. It turned out, the campaign of the Congress worked. The anti-incumbency trend was more palpable in the second round of the survey, and the CPM found itself at the receiving end, going by the final results. There was also a shift in attitude towards former MLA P V Anvar, as per the survey. The number of voters who felt Anvar was good as an MLA had increased. He polled close to 20,000 votes even without any intense campaign.
Results show that the death of 14-year-old Ananthu, who was electrocuted by a poacher's live snare in Nilambur on June 7, intensified the disappointment with the Pinarayi government. There was more proof of the sharpening anti-government mood. In the first survey, 27.5 per cent said the Pinarayi government ushered in big-ticket development. Only 20 per cent held this view in the second round.