The first hour of counting of Nilambur bypoll ballots sent ominous signs for the Congress. After three rounds of counting in Vazhikadavu panchayat, Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath had huffed and puffed to a lead of 1368. This was way below what the Congress wanted. They had planned to secure the contest by the sixth round. It meant Shoukath had to rake in as much as he could in Vazhikadavu, Moothedam and Edakkara. If it didn't happen, Congress knew they would have had to sweat it out in Nilambur municipality, Pothukallu and Amarambalam panchayats.

Instead, independent candidate P V Anvar messed up Congress's plans in the first round. He polled 1588 votes, leaving Shoukath with 3614. M Swaraj then sensed a real chance, he had then got 3195 votes. Out of 46 polling stations in Vazhikadavu, Swaraj outnumbered Shoukath in 14 booths. A contest was on but the thrill was short-lived. Shoukath made his way through Moothedam and Edakkara, sailed through Pothukallu and Nilambur municipality. Save for one panchayat, Karulai, Shoukath led in seven local bodies. The Congress reserved the rudest shock for the CPM candidate M Swaraj in Pothukallu and Nilambur municipality.

Even the most optimistic Congress campaigner had estimated a lead of below 3000 in Nilambur municipality. Besides, the party had to overcome a deficit of over 1500 votes in the 2021 Assembly election. Not only did Congress plug the deficit, it polled close to 4000 votes more than its rival in Nilambur municipality. This was where Swaraj's fate was sealed. In addition, Congress had already gained a sizeable lead of nearly 1000 votes in Swaraj's own panchayat, Pothukallu.

The Congress camp had begun to breathe easy. What remained was Karulai. The Congress thought it would trail here by 500 votes, but Shoukath managed to bring it down to 118. Shoukath took lead in 14 polling booths under Karulai.

Besides it was already beefed up with a solid vote share and any devastating impact at Karulai would have been neutralized. The Congress expected to lead in Edakkara, Chungathara, Moothedam and Vazhikadavu and LDF was supposed to fare well in Pothukallu, Karulai, Nilambur and Amarambalam. After the jumpy start in Vazhikadavu, Shoukath glided across local bodies, ruining any slim chance of Swaraj's return.

Anvar effect was not felt as strongly as it was in Vazhikadavu, further making things easier for Shoukath. Although Anvar crossed 10,000 after counting in four panchayats was over, Shoukath had by then secured his position from where a downfall seemed highly unlikely. Congress members in the constituency said that the influence of Anvar's aide E A Suku was the reason why Anvar polled over 1500 votes in the initial rounds of counting in Vazhikadavu. The Congress drew heavily from the support of settlements at Kumbalapara, Vaniyampuzha, Iruttukuthi and Tharipapotti.

"Shoukath has been very active in these areas right from the time of the pandemic. When there was no bridge, we crossed the rivers to deliver smartphones for the children to study. We were sure that if these votes came our way, Swaraj's home advantage won't be a problem," a Congress member who was part of Shoukath's campaign said.

Shoukath crossed 50,000 by the 13th round and added another 25,000 votes in the next six rounds and the CPM knew the contest was over.