Malappuram LS by-poll: A SWOT analysis

Malappuram: In a by-poll where the discourse veered around the victory margin alone and the narrative was consolidation of vote against a fascist, right-wing regime at the Center, the verdict as such does not impact the political landscape.

Malappuram by-election results

The IUML's massive win in Malappuram was on expected lines but the three major fronts that contested here would have to ponder over some valuable inputs that the electorate has thrown on them.

As data trickles in, Onmanorama ventures on a SWOT (strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats) analysis of the electoral outcome.

Strengths

By retaining the seat held by E. Ahamed, whose demise necessitated the by-poll, and increasing its percentage of votes, the IUML and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), can claim that they have been anointed to champion the cause of an electorate against the NDA regime at the Center.

The UDF can also steer the verdict to hint that the outcome is also a warning to the 11-month-old Left Democratic Front (LDF) government in the state. Many LDF leaders had initially made such a claim, only to backtrack later.

The UDF has succeeded in patching up warring factions within the front in the constituency, which led to its margin shrinking in the 2016 assembly polls.

The sharp differences between the local Congress leaders and a section of the League seem to have been sorted out. The IUML and the UDF would have to continue the momentum as it heads to another by-poll in Vengara, the assembly constituency now represented by Kunhalikutty.

The LDF can take heart from the fact that it has mounted giant odds from the initial stages of the campaign. Its poll-preparedness should delight the ruling front.

The well-oiled election LDF machinery worked overtime to dispel notion that it had put up a weak candidate and it seems to have succeeded on this count.

The political blitzkrieg it unleashed in the last stages of the campaign energized its traditional voters and recouped its rank and file to spread its message that the LDF is the torchbearer of the minorities against a repressive NDA regime.

PK Kunhalikutty wins Malappuram by-poll

This perhaps helped tilt a section of undecided voters to its fold, including the voters of the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), which had called for a conscience vote.

The LDF solace is that despite the absence of two parties which contested the 2014 polls, purportedly at the behest of the IUML, the ruling front in Kerala was able to increase its vote share.

Weaknesses

Though the IUML can take pride in its huge margin, the key point it should note is that the vote share of the ruling LDF has increased significantly from the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

The LDF vote share increase should also be considered in the backdrop of a perceived resentment against the LDF government, which had been mired in controversies.

A sneak peek at the life and times of 'Kunjappa'

In such a circumstance, an increase in the LDF vote share should be a point to ponder for the UDF. Such a perceived resentment against the government may not be strong enough across the state.

For the BJP-led NDA, a Muslim majority constituency in a state which has deep-rooted antagonism for the saffron brand of politics, has always been insurmountable.

It was unable to shift the poll narrative that always hinged on the fascist tendencies being allegedly perpetrated by the NDA regime at the center. It miserably failed to counter these arguments thrown to the electorate by both the fronts.

The NDA was also not able to convey to the electorate what it perceives as the Modi government's achievements. It could not make a dent in the more than 1.5 lakh new voters in the constituency.

Opportunities

The UDF, which had been battered in the assembly polls, is getting a fresh lease of life. The UDF can now hope to recoup as a strong political force to fight the LDF dispensation in the state.

The UDF was able to project to its rank and file that it was a cohesive unit.

The UDF leaders should now latch on to this and make all efforts to spread this message of unity in the front as well as its leading partner, the Congress. That is the key to taking on the LDF government in the state, which has a firm mandate.

Only a cohesive fight against both the Center and the state would give the Congress-led UDF any chance to cling on to its objective of occupying the main opposition slot till the next assembly polls and then taking a shot at returning to power if the LDF bungles it up. The LDF has proven its might in the IUML bastion and it should now work to make a dent in the Malappuram constituency by working to garner the votes which have gone to fringe groups like the SDPI and Welfare Party.

The LDF should also disassociate itself from similar elements which have backed it, like the PDP.

Threats

The IUML candidate romped home comfortably but the UDF cannot shy away from facing the hard reality that the LDF had made significant inroads in vote share in a League bastion.

The significance of the gain in the LDF vote share is that it came at a time when the LDF-led state government was drawing flak on various issues.

The LDF should not hinge on to the argument that the SDPI and Welfare Party abstained from the contest to swing votes for the IUML. It should instead ask itself how the IUML's margin of victory in the 2016 assembly polls increased hugely from the 1,18,000-odd votes.

The LDF should also consider the threat the BJP would post in other constituencies across the state. The BJP has weaned away not only the UDF voters but also traditional LDF voters in many constituencies. There is no solace for the LDF by clinging to vote share alone.

The BJP-led NDA can only hope against hope that it can make massive inroads in an IUML bastion. It is high time the BJP-led front came clean on a host of contentious issues on its agenda that has always nagged it in the southern state.

A stringent hardline Hindutva stance can only alienate it from the electorate and it should work out a way to strengthen the NDA alliance, which again is yet to take off in the state due to bickering allies.

The BJP should now embark on overcoming these deficiencies if it is to harbor any hope for its ambitious 2019 target of gaining in 10 seats in the state. That seems an uphill task as of now.